Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Conservatism: A fundamental aspect of Capitalism

The last giants standing, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, that have become deposit-taking banks is a significant milestone in the history of American Banking Reforms. This is exactly the opposite of what happened after the Great Crash of 1929.

One lesson that is to be remembered by the entire human race across any industry is that there are certain areas that cannot be left to the market forces to decide. For instance, the monitoring of Investment Banks by SEC. SEC is headed by executives that are influenced by the Investment Banks. Having preached the rest of world about regulation and compliance, it is a harsh reality to face in their own backyard. Thanks to ‘ruthless capitalism’, lobbying at the highest levels have undermined the interests of the common public across the globe.

The US government stepping in to control the major banking bodies, rather than outsourcing the control to SEC, is a good sign, assuming that the vicious cycle will not continue. Hank Paulson’s new state-owned organization that will have to convince a lot of key people on both sides of the aisle to print USD 700 billion (to buy all the toxic mortgages) is untypical of capitalism. Irrespective of the chaos and remedial proposals, the damage is already done to all geographies of the globe. The worst affected is the US public that are caught between unpaid mortgage bills and the mounting public debt (USD 11.3 trillion) that will be left for their future generations to pay. And we have not even begun to understand the current status of this monstrous turmoil that is complicated by complex derivatives.

Institutions with a conservative approach, simpler business models and meticulous management are the new heroes of today’s market.

Does this word ‘conservative’ sound familiar?

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The sub-prime crisis

What is a sub-prime loan?

In the US, borrowers are rated either as ‘prime’ - indicating that they have a good credit rating based on their track record - or as ‘sub-prime’, meaning their track record in repaying loans has been below par. Loans given to sub-prime borrowers, something banks would normally be reluctant to do, are categorised as sub-prime loans. Typically, it is the poor and the young who form the bulk of sub-prime borrowers.

Why loans were given?

In roughly five years leading up to 2007, many banks started giving loans to sub-prime borrowers, typically through subsidiaries. They did so because they believed that the real estate boom, which had more than doubled home prices in the US since 1997, would allow even people with dodgy credit backgrounds to repay on the loans they were taking to buy or build homes. Government also encouraged lenders to lend to sub-prime borrowers, arguing that this would help even the poor and young to buy houses.
With stock markets booming and the system flush with liquidity, many big fund investors like hedge funds and mutual funds saw sub-prime loan portfolios as attractive investment opportunities. Hence, they bought such portfolios from the original lenders. This in turn meant the lenders had fresh funds to lend. The subprime loan market thus became a fast growing segment.

What was the interest rate on sub-prime loans?

Since the risk of default on such loans was higher, the interest rate charged on sub-prime loans was typically about two percentage points higher than the interest on prime loans. This, of course, only added to the risk of sub-prime borrowers defaulting. The repayment capacity of sub-prime borrowers was in any case doubtful. The higher interest rate additionally meant substantially higher EMIs than for prime borrowers, further raising the risk of default.
Further, lenders devised new instruments to reach out to more sub-prime borrowers. Being flush with funds they were willing to compromise on prudential norms. In one of the instruments they devised , they asked the borrowers to pay only the interest portion to begin with. The repayment of the principal portion was to start after two years.

How did this turn into a crisis?

The housing boom in the US started petering out in 2007. One major reason was that the boom had led to a massive increase in the supply of housing. Thus house prices started falling. This increased the default rate among subprime borrowers, many of whom were no longer able or willing to pay through their nose to buy a house that was declining in value.
Since in home loans in the US, the collateral is typically the home being bought, this increased the supply of houses for sale while lowering the demand, thereby lowering prices even further and setting off a vicious cycle. That this coincided with a slowdown in the US economy only made matters worse. Estimates are that US housing prices have dropped by almost 50% from their peak in 2006 in some cases. The declining value of the collateral means that lenders are left with less than the value of their loans and hence have to book losses.

How did this become a systematic crisis?

One major reason is that the original lenders had further sold their portfolios to other players in the market. There were also complex derivatives developed based on the loan portfolios, which were also sold to other players, some of whom then sold it on further and so on.
As a result, nobody is absolutely sure what the size of the losses will be when the dust ultimately settles down. Nobody is also very sure exactly who will take how much of a hit. It is also important to realise that the crisis has not affected only reckless lenders. For instance, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which owned or guaranteed more than half of the roughly $12 trillion outstanding in home mortgages in the US, were widely perceived as being more prudent than most in their lending practices. However, the housing bust meant that they too had to suffer losses — $14 billion combined in the last four quarters - because of declining prices for their collateral and increased default rates.
The forced retreat of these two mortgage giants from the market, of course, only adds to every other player’s woes.

What has been the impact of the crisis?

Global banks and brokerages have had to write off an estimated $512 billion in sub-prime losses so far, with the largest hits taken by Citigroup ($55.1 bn) and Merrill Lynch ($52.2 bn). A little more than half of these losses, or $260 bn, have been suffered by US-based firms, $227 billion by European firms and a relatively modest $24 bn by Asian ones. Despite efforts by the US Federal Reserve to offer some financial assistance to the beleaguered financial sector, it has led to the collapse of Bear Sterns, one of the world’s largest investment banks and securities trading firm. Bear Sterns was bought out by JP Morgan Chase with some help from the Fed.
The crisis has also seen Lehman Brothers - the fourth largest investment bank in the US - file for bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch has been bought out by Bank of America. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have effectively been nationalised to prevent them from going under.
Reports suggest that insurance major AIG (American Insurance Group) is also under severe pressure and has asked for a $40 bn bridge loan to tide over the crisis. If AIG also collapses, that would really test the entire financial sector.

How is the rest of the world affected?

Apart from the fact that banks based in other parts of the world also suffered losses from the subprime market, there are two major ways in which the effect is felt across the globe. First, the US is the biggest borrower in the world since most countries hold their foreign exchange reserves in dollars and invest them in US securities.
Thus, any crisis in the US has a direct bearing on other countries, particularly those with large reserves like Japan, China and - to a lesser extent - India. Also, since global equity markets are closely interlinked through institutional investors, any crisis affecting these investors sees a contagion effect throughout the world.

Monday, September 22, 2008

A matter of principle....

Having lived in Chennai for almost two years, I am very wary of people trying to make a killing for even the simplest service that they offer.

One of my relatives had offered to send three laborers to help me move to another apartment. Although I completely trusted my relative, I was very wary of these laborers. They were quite professional and quick in moving. I deliberately dealt with them seriously to avoid any exploitation.

As they had finished their work, I acknowledged the completion of work and went inside to fetch my purse. Having gone through some nasty haggling experiences, I was prepared with exact change in my hand and another set of money in my back pocket for the final part of negotiation. When I came back to the front door, to my surprise, I saw them walking away. I hurriedly called for them and offered them money. With a grim face they refused to take the money. I knew that they were about to create a ruckus. As I read their faces, I realized that their faces did not exactly reflect their gesture of refusing the money that was offered.

“Sorry sir, we will not take any money.” For a minute, I felt very ashamed for being prejudiced. I insisted that I will talk to their owner. They refused again. I called my relative and told him that whatever I am giving is in addition to the actual fee that will be invoiced to me. The best was yet to come. What my relative told me truly blew me away. He said, “Praveen, even if I ask them to take money, they will not take money.” I was stunned at the principle that those laborers demonstrated. Perhaps, the highly paid executives at Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG have something important to learn from these poor laborers who survive on daily wages.
Now, I was very determined to pay them double. My persistent nagging and pleading made them accept the money with much reluctance.

I called my relative again and told him how impressed I was with his management skills for without his superior people management skills, he would not have a great team that has, perhaps, never stepped inside any kind of school in their lives. For those poor laborers, after a long day of hard work, more than any material rewards, what mattered most was the principle that they live by every day.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

My Hero Across The Street

I was seven years old and it was a sunny day in Tuticorin where I was going in a cycle-rickshaw with an uncle. He asked me what I wanted to be. I told him that I wanted to be an Engineer. He asked me why I wanted to be an Engineer. I told him that I wanted to be an Engineer so that I can become like my uncle. After several years, this event made me realize that I am nobody if I had not lived across the street of this great man. Several years later, amazingly, with out preparation, I quoted my uncle, during my M.B.A interview, when they asked me why I wanted to pursue M.B.A. That moment I knew who was behind my success all the time. The intriguing thought is that he has never once motivated me verbally. It is probably his imperious look that did all the talking to me.

I have watched him every single morning, afternoon and evening, kick-starting his scooter and zooming to work like a young boy. He would not bother opening the gate for him because he knew I would come running on hearing the soaring sound of his scooter.

Fear was not part of his vocabulary. Once a policeman came to his doorstep and demanded for some money. I was really scared and amazed to watch him threaten this poor policeman. Another time, it was in Madras where I was ferrying him around the city for his errands in a scooter. He asked me to slow down by a coconut vendor for directions. As a faithful servant, I stopped as instructed. There was a muscular coconut vendor with a knife in his hands and, obviously, he did not appreciate the greatness of this man. Having known my uncle for years, I was not the happiest kid on earth at that moment. Even today I remember the way uncle spoke with this vendor and the startled look on this vendor’s face. Within a few seconds, the tough-speaking vendor became very obliging and I still remember the look on his face that said, “Wow, this must be a big person”.

As I continued to chauffer him in the scooter, we went past a College. And, that is when he told me this amazing story. This is about a small boy whom uncle took under his wings. He cared for this little boy and cared for him just like his own son. This little boy became a man. This man struggled with his studies at that time for various reasons. But, uncle never gave up on him and would never agree for this man to fail. Today that boy is a very successful man. He even has uncle’s name as his initial. He is no other than my dad. If my uncle had not done that for my dad, I am nothing today. Not many people know the good side of this great man. Later on, I learnt that uncle’s mum died on periyappa’s lap asking uncle to promise that he will take care of his brothers. So he did.

As my uncle has passed away, I thought of writing a few words because of two reasons. One, I am sad. Second, I want to make sure that my kids know that we once knew a legend in our family.

There is no end to talk about his greatness. There are some incidents that cannot be told. I will treasure those thoughts and hold it dear to my heart.

Curious Minds

It is fascinating to watch our little ones with curious minds. Anyone who would glance at my son’s face would say, “Boy! This guy must be naughty!!” Well, that’s a truth that we dreadfully endure every single day. He is three and half years old. He has, so far, broken his collar bone, sprained his neck, hands and legs and, last week, he got his feet stuck in the rear wheel of a bicycle. After an X-ray, we were relieved to know that there was no fracture. His hands and legs are spotted with scars. He is a full time job. During our first parents’ meeting at my son’s school, as we were watching the teacher expressing her concerns, quite generously, to other parents, I told my wife, “Well, your son is no angel. Don’t’ expect any accolades. It is going to be a long day.” Understandably, the teacher did not wear a smile for most of the time. When it was our turn, my wife and I were exceptionally focused and were prepared for the long list of complaints. The teacher smiled at us and said, “No problem. He is a good kid. You can go.” Stunned!! I had every reason to believe that the teacher had mistaken us for some other kid’s parents. As the teacher read our perplexed faces, she said, “why? Is Abrie naughty at home?” I was very proud of my son until he started his rampant stunts inside the car on our way back home.

This guy is full of surprises. Last week, the teacher had asked my wife to wait so that she could have a word with my wife. Since my wife is the PTA (Parents Teachers Association) rep, my wife also had a few matters to discuss with the teacher. To her surprise it was not for the PTA. It was a complaint against my son.

That early morning, he had raised his hand to say something. He stood up and showed an object that completely perplexed the teacher. It happened to be a “weight” of a pressure cooker. My wife’s meticulous preparation, especially in terms of child safety, for my son is exceptional. What made him carry that? When did he get that? Why? How? All these questions are still a mystery to us.

His curiosity intrigued me and cracked me up. Thanks to his curiousness, he now goes through a security clearance procedure, including strip-searching, before leaving for school. And I am sure he is breaking all the security codes all the time.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Forces of Nature

I have had the privilege of acquainting with many true friends in my life. I have lost some good friends too. Not due to a strained relationship though.

Subconsciously, I had shied away from few friends and have regretted immensely. However, not surprisingly, when I have had ran into a lost friend after many years, we have had connected instantly and exchanged pleasantries about how it seemed as if we had been in touch every single day.

Boston, MA - August 15, 2001: My friends and I stepped out of the office to a mall in Beverly. As we were driving in my friends Explorer, we casually discussed about starting a non-profit organization to help the downtrodden in India. As we were seated in one of the tables in a food court at a Mall in Beverly, (Boston, MA), we jotted the plan on a paper-tissue and little did we realize that our dreams would transform into a non-profit organization called Next Generation Foundation. Frankly, I was basking in the steadfast dedication of my friends, who considered helping the under-privileged kids as something that was larger than life. Over the years, although, initially, I was actively involved in the organization, I had shied away from the mainstream activities and gradually disappeared into obscurity.

Chennai - July 2008: I was enjoying my morning walk, by the coast in Chennai, snaking through the regulars (walkers), with my face down trying to concentrate and visualize a positive future. A loud, gruff voice called out my name with such firmness so much so that the person cannot be a stranger. As I was jolted out of my deep-thoughts, it took me a few seconds to collect my thoughts and respond. It was no other than the friend in Boston who was vacationing in Chennai. I had moved to India in 2006. Imagine this!! My friend is living in Boston and I am living in Chennai. We lost touch and here we are standing in front of each other, absolutely stunned by the sheer “Forces of nature”. It was a mind-blowing experience and the best was yet to come.

Since the moment I had disappeared into obscurity, my friend had pursued me many a times to get active with our organization that we founded so passionately. Although there was not a day that went by when I had not felt guilty about my silence, I had conveniently shied away unabashedly. Unsurprisingly, we connected instantly and I was hooked again. Perhaps, it was the bottled energy and emotions that made me embrace the opportunity with all my heart.

I felt liberated and I made peace with myself about a passion that I once pursued so vividly, but failed to follow through.

As we exchanged pleasantries on that beautiful morning in the beach, my friend casually talked about the “Dharma Yuga” project and how that can be coupled with an exchange program across schools in India and the US. I was impressed and wanted to be part of the action again. A residential school has shown interest in participating in the exchange program. As part of the program, the school would help educate over 1000 poor children.

Next Generation Foundation (NGF) is a socio-charitable organization striving to create a revolutionary drive within people to make the social changes that humanity needs. One of our missions is supporting education of underprivileged children. NGF is built on the foundations of peace and prosperity to all of the humanity. We believe that every child across the world should have the equal and fair opportunity to choose their own destiny and build a better future for mankind. We have taken our first step towards this belief. We have started with our home, India, by extending help to the underprivileged children living in this world's largest democracy. In the long-term we should be able to extend charitable help to other parts of the world. Come and join us in this revolution. (www.nextgenfoundation.org)

It is amazing to think of a natural or spiritual force that would pull some strings to orchestrate the daily events of human life. Well, this time, I am glad it was for a happy eventful morning.